AIA 20yr endowment payout at 6.6%, can trust?

One of my cohorts shared on his recent NEW endowment policy bought with AIA after 1 Jul 2021. It was his first endowment bought.

Jul 2021: Single Premium: $45k paid at age 57

After Year-10, 
Projected payout of $1k p.m. (or $12k p.a.) annually every year from Year-11 to Year-20 (at age 67 to 77). ($45k becomes $120k.)

I worked it out on the Xirr calculator to be compounded return of 6.6%;
wow it is simply too very good to believe.

Based on my knowledge, I shared that if, by then, it's actual payout is $750 p.m. or $9k p.a., he should be laughing every month, at 4.6% compounded xirr rate of return; (highly unlikely to get $1k p.m.)

While I agree that AIA is one of the best performing fund for past few years, this projected payout is too good to believe.

I also shared a similiar 20-year INCOME Revoretire of $60k premium, payout Year-11 to 20 payout of $9.3k p.a. or $93k p.a. ($60k will become $93k)

I am not insurance agent.  But I spoke to him with 10-years experience buying 18 endowments, new and resale.

Not to dampen his spirit, but to set some realism in his retirement planning.

But I need to share that another $45k x 2 premiums would add up to $750 x 3  p.m. = $2.25k p.m. for every year for 10-years. It will become his proud Endowment Tap.  

So that's how to cross-check and encourage one another to cover each other blind spot.]

And also that buying new endowment after 1 Jul 2021, will get lower projected payout based on lowered BI.  This was due to MAS guidelines imposed.

Another useful date to know was 1Jul 2013 where the endowment BI was lowered, as follows:

3.75% ~ 5.25%
3.25% ~ 4.75% (from 1 Jul 13)
3.00% ~ 4.25% (from 1 Jul 21)


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